wheat

Crop report over shadowed by South American drought

jkoenig — Fri, 10 Sep 2010 09:13:03 -0500

This mornings USDA crop production and WASDE numbers seem to be a mix of what was expected by the trade, give or take. What I particularly noted was the world wheat stocks had not declined much. This morning I saw an article in Flex-news that caused me to question the number since the trade seems to believe that the Russian wheat stocks are a good 20-25% below the amount that is being reported by the Russian government. Add to that, this morning, a significant export sales number for both old crop and new crop wheat.

Northern hemisphere frosts threaten this and next years crops

jkoenig — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 17:52:32 -0500

A couple of article on a weather theme that we knew was coming soon ... now beginning to surface in the media.

Russia to plant 18 million hectares of wheat - but will it be in time to grow and will there be enough moisture?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704358904575477460246521810.html?mod=WSJ_FoodAndTobacco_leftHeadlines

Russia bans exports until 2012, world wakes up

jkoenig — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 08:49:30 -0500

The Financial times has a piece today that really just highlights the fact that the world is waking up to the idea that Russia will not be an exporter for a while. This means we are one country disaster away from a runaway market and in fact we keep highlighting that Argentina is extremely dry and there are concerns about Australia. I think that someof this risk is being priced into the market. Even without another disaster it means there will be normal but significant shifts of export business to low cost countries ... the U.S.

The table turned - Russia to become a wheat importer

jkoenig — Thu, 19 Aug 2010 13:50:20 -0500

While I've been absent from the office for a short time, I have been monitoring news. I see in the Financial times a discussion of issue about Russia becoming an importer of wheat. From other sources I noted that Russia could be an importer of corn too.

Read at FT.com (registration required)
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/38410818-ab7a-11df-abee-00144feabdc0.html

Russia rain critical for winter wheat planting

jkoenig — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 16:39:41 -0500

The Financial Times has an article highlighting the drought issue and how parts of Russia may be only 2-3 short weeks away from ruining next years crop too.

Read at FT.com
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bc8890ca-a619-11df-9cb9-00144feabdc0.html

See also
Could the ban on Russian wheat exports extend into next crop year?
http://www.connellcommodities.com/node/2111

Can Argentina really be expected to help the Russian shortfall

jkoenig — Wed, 11 Aug 2010 10:28:16 -0500

Now that the wheat market has created a top for this moment, many are feeling comfort that there is enough wheat in the world to satisfy demand but that said we are still possibly one more problem away from a continuation of the issue. Argentina is looked at as a resource to plug some of the shortfall of the drought stricken Russian wheat crop however the Financial Times shed some useful light on the realities of government intervention and growing wheat in Argentina that might make you a bit more uncomfortable.

Could the ban on Russian wheat exports extend into next crop year?

jkoenig — Mon, 09 Aug 2010 10:33:46 -0500

Agrimoney suggests that Russia's export ban into the next crop year.

Read at Agrimoney.com
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/russia-could-be-forced-to-prolong-grain-export-ban--2084.html

Russian bans wheat exports

jkoenig — Thu, 05 Aug 2010 08:41:55 -0500

Russia finally bans wheat exports. The effective date is August 15. What we expect is that wheat purchases that cannot be shipped will be force majeure and will need to be bought from other origins. The trade anticipates this which is why it's up another 60 as I write.

Read at the Financial Times
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/485c93ae-a06f-11df-a669-00144feabdc0.html

Russia's Ag Minister suggests Russia could run out of wheat

jkoenig — Tue, 03 Aug 2010 16:19:24 -0500

I saw this on Bloomberg this afternoon: Some commentary from both the Russian Ag minister and Glencore Russia suggest that without the Russian government banning exports that Russia will essentially run out of wheat. This potentially puts Russia in the position of importing to replace what has been committed for export ... all depending on the size of the crop.

The Russian wheat crop is on fire

jkoenig — Sun, 01 Aug 2010 17:11:40 -0500

We've been hearing and following the progressing situation in Russia regarding the wheat crop. This weekend I found, and thought it was worth posting this article right away - 500 square miles on fire. The fires are not new but the revelation that there are now 500 square miles is a lot of land (and crop land) to be on fire and I'd think would be pretty alarming to wheat traders.

Less crop insurance, more CRP equals less available farmland

jkoenig — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 11:02:58 -0500

Farm Policy blog highlights current decisions from inside the government that will impact total acres available for crop production and raise risks for producers. The policy decisions happen to be connect by the fact that money flows from the insurance program to the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) for the purpose of getting CRP acres back up to the maximum allowed by law, 32 million acres. Apparently, because of the tactics being used, tempers are really flaring up.